The University of Virginia publishes a horse race political Blog called "Sabato's Crystal Ball" in which he tries to predict political races. President, Governor, Senate, House. Despite the title, he seldom veers from cautions conventional "wisdom". Take Florida, where there is going to be a contested primary between Progressive hero Alan Grayson and moderate (and former Republican) Patrick Murphy. The conventional "wisdom" is that Grayson is a liberal bomb thrower, while Murphy, due to Florida's history of electing moderates, is by far the strongest candidate. Sabato trots out Senator Bill Nelson and ex Governor and Senator Bob Graham as examples of Florida moderate Democratic power. Nice sounding theory. Beloved inside the Beltway. To bad it is false, laughably false, almost psychotically false.
First of all, Bob Graham last ran statewide in 1998. That's 17 years ago, Larry. Nelson won his last tough race in 2000. His reelection since then has been more due to incredible luck then political strength. In 2006 Nelson ran for re-election against, wait for it, KATHERINE HARRIS. In 2012, he was opposed by Connie Mark III, who had more personal problems than Charlie Sheen. Pulling out these Golden Oldies as an examples on how Florida voters like moderate Democrats just preys on the national readers ignorance of Florida Politics.
Soooooo, how have Florida Democratic Moderates fared when Nelson was not facing a paluka? They are Zero for Seven!
RACE REPUBLICIAN DEMOCRAT
2014
Governor Rick Scott moderate Charlie Christ
2010
Governor Rick Scott moderate Alex Sink
2010
Senator Marco Rubio moderate Ind. Charlie Crist
2006
Governor Charlie Crist moderate Jim Davis
2004
Senator Mel Martinez moderate Betty Castor
2002
Governor Jeb Bush moderate Bill McBride
1998
Governor Jeb Bush moderate Buddy McKay
in Short THE GOP WON ALL SEVEN RACES AGAINST MODERATE DEMOCRATIC OPPSITION!
Even taking into account 2010's split opposition against Rubio (which Rubio would have won anyway in the Tea Party sweep) This Is an 0 for 7 record for Florida Moderates. I'm not even bringing up downballot races, where Republicans always win. Soooo Florida Democrats should vote for Murphy because is will be the stronger candidate. Really?
Don't bring up Grayson's Talban Dan comments please. There was no way he was going to be re-elected in that district in the Tea Party year 0f 2010.Can Grayson be elected statewide? Don't know. History shows that Murphy will be no better
Larry Sabato, you suck
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